Segundo Martin Feldstein, problems run deeper than Wall Street:«So that is where the US is now: in the middle of a financial crisis, with the economy sliding into recession, monetary policy already at maximum easing, and fiscal transfers impotent. That is an unenviable situation, to say the least»Edmund Phelps afirma que we need to recapitalize the banks:«The claim by Keynesians that the economy can be stabilized around a satisfactory employment level, thanks to economic science, is false. So is the claim by latter-day neoclassicals that such stability is automatic, thanks to the market. Both dogmas fatally miss the point that the normal activity level is driven by structural shifts, which monetary policy and price-level changes usefully accommodate but cannot reverse.(...)I believe that leaving the process of recovery entirely to the healing powers of the banking industry, as libertarians suggest, would be imprudent, even if the banks could manage it. Lacking much government intervention, Japan's recovery took a decade. Sweden's recovery, with state intervention, took hardly any time at all.»Alberto Alesina lidera uma Open Letter to European leaders on Europe's banking crisis: A call to action:«Trust amongs financial institutions is disappearing and there are risks that fear will spread more widely. Turmoil in financial markets must be stopped before it causes major damage to the real economy. The savings of hundreds of millions of Europeans are directly threatened. If the turmoil produces credit market paralysis, jobs and businesses will be destroyed on a massive scale. A further weakening of the real economy would put more loans at risk and create a vicious cycle of falling asset prices, deteriorating ability to repay loans, and diminishing credit flows.»Tyler Cowen cita vários planos que estão a ser discutidos publicamente e resume as suas ideias sobre a crise:«4. I would not nationalize banks as ongoing concerns, at least not short of a far more extreme emergency than the current status quo.5. The modified Paulson plan was better than nothing -- especially after the market had been scared -- but far from my first choice. In any case the plan would have been revised almost immediately. The Paulson and Dodd plans were never that far apart.10. Libertarians are overrating the moral hazard argument, as many equity holders have been wiped out.»Paul Krugman votaria favoravelmente o plano Paulson, mas zangado. Relembra também que a intervenção desta semana na Islândia, com o governo a assumir capital no valor de $USD859M corresponde, ajustando ao valor per capita, a um plano no valor de $USD850B nos EUA.O Financial Times relembra-nos (assumindo que economia=PIB)que:«Some banks are bigger than governments: their assets are greater than their home countries’ economies. The chart below shows the size of major European banks as a proportion - or multiple - of their home countries’ GDP.»Alguns exemplos:Suiça: UBS Total Assets 1,142(€B) / Total Assets to GDP 623%Holanda: ING Total Assets 1,370(€B) / Total Assets to GDP 290%Espanha: Santander Total Assets 913 (€B) / Total Assets to GDP 132%Portugal: Millenium BCP Total Assets 88 (€B) / Total Assets to GDP 67%No Marketwatch do Wall Street Journal o boneco permanente tem sido este, apesar de ainda não estarmos a 31:Bom fim de semana.
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Segundo Martin Feldstein, problems run deeper than Wall Street:«So that is where the US is now: in the middle of a financial crisis, with the economy sliding into recession, monetary policy already at maximum easing, and fiscal transfers impotent. That is an unenviable situation, to say the least»Edmund Phelps afirma que we need to recapitalize the banks:«The claim by Keynesians that the economy can be stabilized around a satisfactory employment level, thanks to economic science, is false. So is the claim by latter-day neoclassicals that such stability is automatic, thanks to the market. Both dogmas fatally miss the point that the normal activity level is driven by structural shifts, which monetary policy and price-level changes usefully accommodate but cannot reverse.(...)I believe that leaving the process of recovery entirely to the healing powers of the banking industry, as libertarians suggest, would be imprudent, even if the banks could manage it. Lacking much government intervention, Japan's recovery took a decade. Sweden's recovery, with state intervention, took hardly any time at all.»Alberto Alesina lidera uma Open Letter to European leaders on Europe's banking crisis: A call to action:«Trust amongs financial institutions is disappearing and there are risks that fear will spread more widely. Turmoil in financial markets must be stopped before it causes major damage to the real economy. The savings of hundreds of millions of Europeans are directly threatened. If the turmoil produces credit market paralysis, jobs and businesses will be destroyed on a massive scale. A further weakening of the real economy would put more loans at risk and create a vicious cycle of falling asset prices, deteriorating ability to repay loans, and diminishing credit flows.»Tyler Cowen cita vários planos que estão a ser discutidos publicamente e resume as suas ideias sobre a crise:«4. I would not nationalize banks as ongoing concerns, at least not short of a far more extreme emergency than the current status quo.5. The modified Paulson plan was better than nothing -- especially after the market had been scared -- but far from my first choice. In any case the plan would have been revised almost immediately. The Paulson and Dodd plans were never that far apart.10. Libertarians are overrating the moral hazard argument, as many equity holders have been wiped out.»Paul Krugman votaria favoravelmente o plano Paulson, mas zangado. Relembra também que a intervenção desta semana na Islândia, com o governo a assumir capital no valor de $USD859M corresponde, ajustando ao valor per capita, a um plano no valor de $USD850B nos EUA.O Financial Times relembra-nos (assumindo que economia=PIB)que:«Some banks are bigger than governments: their assets are greater than their home countries’ economies. The chart below shows the size of major European banks as a proportion - or multiple - of their home countries’ GDP.»Alguns exemplos:Suiça: UBS Total Assets 1,142(€B) / Total Assets to GDP 623%Holanda: ING Total Assets 1,370(€B) / Total Assets to GDP 290%Espanha: Santander Total Assets 913 (€B) / Total Assets to GDP 132%Portugal: Millenium BCP Total Assets 88 (€B) / Total Assets to GDP 67%No Marketwatch do Wall Street Journal o boneco permanente tem sido este, apesar de ainda não estarmos a 31:Bom fim de semana.